The Signature in Real Estate

Over the years, I have rolled my eyes when I have received emails with huge signature taglines and have kept my thoughts to myself.   However, this evening, as I was cleaning out my “inbox” in Outlook, I noticed that the majority of the huge mail items were from real estate agents –mainly, because their “signature” attachments are so large.  

When did the “signature” become more important than the message?

Example 1:  An agent sent a one sentence message to me that was “26KB” because his signature line was 4 inches –I am not exaggerating. A signature that included:  his name, his personal logo, his official title,  his contact info, all of his awards, his broker’s logo, a movie attachment (about himself), a link to “his properties” and a “think green logo”.  (I refrain from commenting on the “green” aspect of such a signature!!)

He is not alone in this tacky display of inconsideration that is interpreted by many (in the profession) as someone that is a genius to “Branding” and to others as rude…

Example 2: Another agent had a similar signature, but, with a few more additions: follow me on twitter (link); following me on Facebook (link).

I thought to myself:   “Are you kidding me? How are you taking care of your clients with all of this self- branding via social media? Do people really care that you showed an apartment and then went to Pastis — is this why you never submitted my offer?” 

When did the “Brand” replace the “product”?  When did the “product” become the agent (broker) and not the apartment (and client)?

A Greenwich Village Soliloquy

In the past I have made an effort not to be biased in my writings of neighborhoods within this island called Manhattan; but, this evening I have decided that my romance with Greenwich Village needs to be voiced on this page.

It has been said that, “the Village is the most significant square mile in American cultural history”.

I must admit, that it definitely has made a significant impression on me: from my pre-teen years in a small college town in Ohio that leads to my passion as a professional in this city today. 

Proustian memory took its hold on me as I walked through the Village today…

Flash to 12 years old:  In my hometown of Wooster, Ohio I was learning a piece of music, “Still on this Shining Night” by Samuel Barber. The lyrics to the piece haunted me and I needed to find out more about this James Agee that inked them. So, I  fiercely studied Agee’s “Descriptions of Elysium” and other parts of Permit Me Voyage. I became slightly obsessed with Agee from that age of twelve. Because of my obsession with his writings, he introduced me to the photographer, Walker Evans in his book Let Us Now Praise Famous Men. Both Agee & Evans were residents of Greenwich Village.

Reflection to Teen Years: Still in Wooster, I would take escape from the mundane rural life and visit my public library. I would sit for hours and devour huge art books working my way up to 20th century masters including on again off again Village residents as Winslow Homer, Diego Rivera and John LaFarge. Not knowing then that other residents such as Man Ray would peak my interests so many years later.  And that abstract expressionism, which found its tone in Greenwich Village would be a style that I would want to learn more about now in my thirties.

Spell of 18 years old:  In Cleveland, I found myself massively in-love for the first time. My first love introduced me to the works of Jackson Pollock. Pollock lived at 46 Carmine, 47 Horatio, 46 East 8th in the Village.  I in turn introduced my first love to my fascination with the writings of Henry Miller—a resident as well. And then, heart-break entered my world. During the laments of such agony with my once (naively) betrothed, I read Kahlil Gibran’s, The Prophet. I am reminded of my first engagement with heart-break every time I pass, 51 West 10th Street – where Gibran lived.

Of course there are so many “Great Minds of the Village” that influenced me over the next twenty years -including important social movements. But, today was just a quick flash to my youth, reminding me, I have always had a connection to this neighborhood. It started in Greenwich Village for me–even though I had never been.  

I  desire to make my own imprint on the Village one day. Maybe, a real estate legacy of some sort…

 

Celebrate the Village in 2009:

Summer events sponsored by the Greenwich Village Society for Historic Preservation

Beyond the Beatniks: The Hidden History of St. Mark’s Place
A Walking Tour with Eric Ferrara
Sunday, July 12
1:00 – 2:30 P.M.
Meeting place given upon reservation.
Free; reservations required.
RSVP to rsvp@gvshp.org or (212) 475-9585 ext. 35

St. Mark’s Place staked its claim as an epicenter of pioneering radical arts, activism, and counterculture in America over half a century ago — but there is much more than meets the eye. Before the beatniks, hippies, and punks (and way before the t-shirt and yogurt shops), St. Mark’s Place served as an important social and political hub for the ever changing immigrant groups populating the neighborhood over the last 150 years.

On this tour, we will peel back the layers of myths, legends, and misconceptions of St. Mark’s Place to reveal little-known history about this fascinating street and time capsule of East Village/Lower East Side/New York City history.

Eric Ferrara is a fourth generation/native Lower East Sider, published author, licensed guide, and executive director of the East Village History Project and East Village Visitors Center. Ferrara offers years of unprecedented research along with personal anecdotes and oral history which make for a truly unique experience.

This event is co-sponsored by the East Village History Project/East Village Visitors Center.

An Evening at the Jefferson Market Garden
Featuring the cast of the Greenwich Village Follies
Tuesday, July 28
[Rain date: July 30]
6:00 – 8:00 P.M.
Jefferson Market Garden
Enter on Greenwich Avenue at Sixth Avenue and West 10th Street
Free; reservations required.
RSVP to rsvp@gvshp.org or (212) 475-9585 ext. 35

The Village on Film Presents: Wait Until Dark
A GVSHP Film Series
Thursday, August 6
6:30 – 9:00 P.M.
Neighborhood Preservation Center
232 East 11th Street
Free; reservations required.
RSVP to rsvp@gvshp.org or (212) 475-9585 ext. 35

Following our May screening of Next Stop, Greenwich Village, GVSHP presents Part Two of our Village on Film Series.

Come see Audrey Hepburn’s Oscar-nominated performance in Terence Young’s Wait Until Dark. Hepburn plays a recently-blinded woman who lives on St. Luke’s Place. After her husband agrees to carry a doll over the border for a stranger, Hepburn’s Susy Hendrix is then terrorized by three criminals (led by Alan Arkin as Roat) who believe that their large stash of stolen heroin is inside the doll. The search begins benignly but turns violent as Susy catches on to the thieves’ plot and forms a plan of her own to level the playing field.

This film screening will be held in GVSHP’s living room with popcorn and goodies provided! Space is limited.

The Villagers of Ellis Island
A Walking Tour of Ellis Island with Tom Bernardin
Sunday, August 16
Meet at 11:45 A.M.
Meeting place given upon reservation
$12/person for ferry fees.
RSVP to rsvp@gvshp.org or (212) 475-9585 ext. 35

Greenwich Village has often been celebrated for its rich immigrant past, including the South Village’s Italian community, the groups of French immigrants living on Bleecker Street in the nineteenth-century, and the Ukrainian heritage of the East Village. But how did these future Villagers enter our country? In many cases, they came through Ellis Island, the long-acknowledged immigration hub of the United States.

Join Tom Bernardin, former National Park Service Ellis Island ranger at pre-restoration Ellis Island and author/publisher of The Ellis Island Immigrant Cookbook as we explore Ellis Island and its connection to Greenwich Village immigrant groups. This program will provide an entire day’s jaunt out to Ellis Island, including a tour of the island exclusively for GVSHP followed by individual opportunities to explore the Island.

Dominos in Real Estate

 

Believe it or not,  I have not had a buyer purchase with a mortgage since 2006. This being stated, prior to that magical year I have been involved with hundreds of transactions that involved financing for properties – even those that were foreclosures and short sales. The later being the most difficult of experiences (on the agent side and the appraiser side).

I am embarrassed to write that I missed a very, VERY important ruling (in red below) that was put in motion by Fannie Mae on March 1:

“The government-backed mortgage-finance company stopped guaranteeing mortgages in condo buildings where fewer than 70% of the units have been sold, up from 51%. In addition, the company won’t back loans for sales in buildings where 15% of current owners are delinquent on association fees or where more than 10% of units are owned by a single-entity.”

 

Those words in red affect every condo buyer I have ever represented –even the cash buyers. 

Three days and 2 sleep deprived nights ago, I received a call from an owner I sold to in 2007 (cash purchase)…. 

 

Because of the current low interest rates, the owners thought they would take a mortgage on the 2007 unit and purchase another unit in NYC because the prices are pretty good right now.

 

Their phone call was to inform me that the lender would not lend on their unit because “one entity” owned 18.14% of the units in the building and there are too many rentals in the building. The subject building had been put on the “list” of buildings not to lend to —- the owners were not happy and wanted to back out of the other deal because of the “principle” of it all –NOT because they did not necessarily have the cash to follow-through on the new apartment.

I have to say, I understood their perspective. Most of us feel that if you dump cash into real estate you are going to be able to draw on it in the future – right? Not the case anymore…it is a new time in the United States with a lot of change that concerns all of us on some level.

 

I was told by executive leaders in the NYC real estate community, multiple loan officers and other highly experienced brokers: “it is what it is-nothing can be done.”

 

Guess what? I said, No, it cannot be and I started getting to work. I am not going to get into all of the tedious things I had to do or all of the individuals I had to “push” to help me retrieve the info I needed; but, I got the building off the “list”.  

 

My entire life I have had (some) issues with simply not accepting: “it is just the way it is – let is rest.” At times it has been my demise…

I do not know why I am so compelled to say “No, there must be a way.” I guess if I have not had some success with converting the “nothing can be done” to something has been done (but, differently), I would not be the fighter that I am. The “believer” that everything IS possible…

Maybe, we are so accepting of the “nothing can be done” mentality because we are not ready to see that it CAN be done.

 

 

Dominos may fall; but, the real game does get started until they are down.

War & Peace: NYC 1Q09 Market Reports

The 1Q09 Market Reports were released last week. Of course each one of them varied:

 

Halstead -The Report

Prudential Douglas Elliman-The Report

Corcoran-The Report 

 

As well as the Media’s interpretation of them.

A recent example:

Housing bust hits Manhattan(with a sub-title: Prices still rising in Manhattan real estate) CNN/MONEY

Honestly, no wonder buyers and sellers are in a state of confusion!

The one thing that really disturbs me is the % basis experts, brokers, and the media throw out there…20% below prime; 40% current list price; etc.

 

 

The fact of the matter is that all apartments; each neighborhood; and every seller has a different story and price-point.  There is no secret percentage.  Some apartments are priced well from the beginning-some are not; some neighborhoods have a greater demand; some sellers are desperate-some are not….To say units should be trading at 40% below list price is just out right foolish methodology for me to communicate to my clients. Mainly, because there is not enough data that has been specifically scrubbed and brokers really need to dig deep for the actual pricing. How can one truly take heed to media reports of condos that include those on East 87th (a walk-up building) all the way down to Walker Street (a full service building)? To me, that is like comparing General Motors with General Mills.

 

 

I have stated many times to my buyers (and sellers): 

“Every apartment has a different story.”  Throwing an average percentage out there is just a lazy broker to me —One that reads the media head-lines as if they are Cliff Notes. One thing that all those years working in a depressed market (such as Cleveland) taught me was to do my homework as if I was tackling a novel by Tolstoy.

When a buyer is serious: I pull the original deed, I pull the recorded mortgages, I pull the closed comps and in this 2009 market those comps also need to be blended with the current list prices…and, yes, I ask a lot of questions.

 

 

Pricing real estate is an element of  history, a measurement of now, a fraction of need and component of balanced consideration…Not an average overall %.

 

 

“What is Your Personal Stimulus Plan?”

This late afternoon I took acute notice to a proposed question:

“What is your personal Stimulus Plan*?”.

I smiled as a response.

For the simple reason, that I have always believed that I am the mastermind behind all of my success and malfunctions on this journey called, life. I did not have to wait for a recession to re-evaluate my circumstances; I do not cast blame on others or even desire the government to offer Kensyian-like means to bail me out.

I indeed have a personal Stimulus Plan: written in the form of goals with deadlines. I simply call it, my Life Plan. It is by no means a masterful entrepreneurial manual wrapped with the fiscal prophecy of quick success; but one swathed with small goals quilted with even larger goals that will take many, many years to achieve. With the thread being all of my personal values.

Peculiar it is to me that individuals wait for others to determine their fate. Currently, I am surrounded by a chorus of citizens singing the parts of real estate buyers that are waiting for the market to fall further. I must say, it is time for this Requiem to fade…it is time to step up to the stage and be a soloist.

Housing prices will fall further; but, at the bottom there will be a new found fear…panic to buy. Once the economists with the media announce the “bottom is here” or even the real estate market is picking up the beat: all of self professed “bottom feeders” are going to rise to the surface and the bidding wars will begin (again). Many of the choristers will miss the opportunity of that “great deal”. The time to find that deal is now; in the art form of diva-like negotiation; but, with reasoning– by that soloist buyer. That buyer that knows the real fiscal return in the purchase arrives at their doorstep in many years.

One of my goals in my Life Plan: I will have a MIT and Harvard education saved for each of my children by the time I am 44 (the age they will be in college). Many of my friends ask, “How are you going to accomplish this as a single mother in less than a decade and as a broker??!”.

I always answer: “I am buying a studio apartment in Manhattan in 2009; two in 2010; etc. Then I will sell the first after owning 8 years (and so on), pay for their education (in full) and finally, buy my own personal residence that also will be large enough to fill all of my cherished books!”

As a first generation American (maternal side), I am a witness that owning real estate builds wealth. My grandparents’ case: owning 38 pieces of real estate…slowly, as if sewing a beautiful quilt full of will and prosperity..

Maybe, it is one reason I am drawn to downtown Manhattan…the view of Ellis Island is a remembrance of the near penniless arrival of my grandmother holding my mother as they entered America…

I am not writing this night as a helpless artist painting with words; but, as a real estate advisor with a conviction that this time of fear shall pass, bringing a resurrection of affluence to those that choose to act now. 

 

 

 

 

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity. An optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” - Winston Churchill 

*Question from Wells Fargo’s Seminar: Meeting The Market Challenge in 2009

A Contemplation of a Serious Matter

To further understand the Wagnerian complexities encircling the economy which currently augments the score of real estate here in Manhattan; I attended a few “round-table” discussions performed by the executive leadership team of Halstead at REBNY.

 

The archives of data shared with the most experienced vocal insight of leaders within the industry were heartening for me; but, also brought a dissonance: For nearly a week, I have been trying to find some sort of counterpoint with real estate trades over the last years combined with this new century.

 

So, I decided to compose the data in a form that I could actually understand this NYC Ring Cycle:

 

	STUDIO	1BDRM	2BDRM	3BDRM
2007	$379,182.00	$631,648.00	$1,411,088.00	$3,482,993.00
2006	$389,430.00	$614,770.00	$1,325,048.00	$3,230,631.00
2005	$346,231.00	$570,974.00	$1,228,087.00	$3,091,631.00
2004	$275,791.00	$451,716.00	$1,015,680.00	$2,491,606.00
2003	$243,252.00	$412,181.00	$869,522.00	$2,262,754.00
2002	$248,305.00	$342,451.00	$768,653.00	$2,447,632.00
2001	$226,283.00	$344,250.00	$760,030.00	$2,285,924.00
2000	$152,971.00	$297,696.00	$767,508.00	$1,972,794.00
1999	$103,600.00	$218,061.00	$555,907.00	$1,510,412.00
1998	$123,070.00	$248,632.00	$504,317.00	$1,197,376.00
1997	$91,744.00	$171,731.00	$428,505.00	$1,205,836.00
1996	$79,130.00	$152,380.00	$383,234.00	$998,797.00
1995	$72,176.00	$142,685.00	$355,278.00	$1,000,486.00
1994	$70,985.00	$142,739.00	$369,060.00	$974,718.00
1993	$71,238.00	$136,471.00	$349,552.00	$921,855.00
1992	$83,131.00	$149,677.00	$368,031.00	$930,805.00
1991	$91,698.00	$162,423.00	$371,580.00	$871,036.00
1990	$116,523.00	$174,128.00	$438,077.00	$1,085,296.00
1989	$121,863.00	$184,042.00	$464,629.00	$1,171,664.00

 

Post analyzing the above composition (focusing on the 1990s), I have been haunted by an Unanswered Question:

 

Are we in for another dark dive that lasted nearly a decade?

 

As if I was forced to only see Central Park in the Dark while listening to the music of Charles Ives, I desperately needed to find a dissimilarity within this cycle…this simply cannot be the destiny of our Manhattan market!

 

What is the key difference between the 1990s and this second day of March within the year of 2009: population!

 

According to the Department of City Planning, the population of NYC in the 1990s was 7,322,564…this day it is over 8,310,212.

 

It is for such growth in our city’s population that I do not foresee such a “dark decade” in our future…Simply, we have a NEED to house the growing population in NYC…

 

For the record: I am a REALIST that processes information like an appraiser; communicates as a broker that is a BELIEVER that all things can change for the betterment with thought, knowledge and perseverance…a counterpoint in real estate? Maybe…

 

  

Printable version of the above data

*In music, counterpoint is the relationship between two or more voices that are independent in contour and rhythm, and interdependent in harmony. It has been most commonly identified in Western music, developing strongly in the Renaissance, and also dominant in much of the common practice period, especially in Baroque music. The term comes from the Latin punctus contra punctum (“point against point”).

Perspective in Balance

With effort to heal the disappointments of this week, I poured a glass of wine and filled my apartment with notes of the Bach Cello Suites this night. As Yo-Yo Ma’s interpretation soared through my apartment, I savored the perfect balance of Bach while reflecting on the potpourri of clients in my pipeline: their own personal “story” to purchase in Manhattan and a conversation with one client in particular, “The Artist.”

 

Everyone in NYC real estate talks and writes about the big dollar apartments (and buyers). I have too on occasion.  I guess it is sexier to talk about. It sells newspapers. It gives some a “hope” of what they may one day own and offers bitter fuel for those souls that find envy in others’ prosperity.

 

My client, “The Artist” is not going to sell newspapers with her purchase nor will she be the talk of Manhattan cocktail conversation. But, she does put a real crescendo on PERSPECTIVE.

 

The tête-à-tête on the corner of 69^th & Amsterdam

 

Setting the stage: The Artist is going into contract on an apartment and before she signed the contract, she wanted to look at one more apartment to validate her decision to move forward.

 

The Artist: Heather, I am sorry you had to show this apartment to me.

Heather: Are you kidding me? $240,000.00 is a lot of money. I get it – you need comfort of mind in your purchase. I find it odd that people here still think it is an insignificant amount of money. In most cities, a family of four could live on that amount comfortably for 5 years.

The Artist: Yes, I guess so; (she laughs) or buy a really great house in Poughkeepsie!

 

Perspective:

When you get right down to the matter of it, $240,000.00 is a lot of money for 450 square feet of space wrapped with northern light in America…

Balance:

Not too many buyers are finding apartments in Manhattan (with a fulltime doorman) for $240,000.00…

The Sentimental Broker

A client in Belgium (whom is a New Yorker at heart!) emailed me this summer asking: “Is Manhattan still your secret lover?”

So, on this chilly winter day, I have decided not to have words that fill this page with housing data and market reports. But, to write about my “secret lover.”

This past Saturday I experienced an uncomfortable coffee klatsch with a French man. He was complaining about New York, its residents and the lack of beautiful architecture.

In a passionate effort to spin his thoughts in a different direction, I voiced my love affair with New York as an historic aria:

“Manhattan has such a rich history that we all add to with chapters of our own lives. I am excited and thankful everyday that I am here!

How could you not appreciate that Bernstein lived in The Osborne, F.Scott Fitzgerald wrote at a pub in the West Village, Toscanini & Babe Ruth stayed at The Ansonia, George Washington celebrated his faith at St. Paul’s Chapel, William S. Burroughs wrote at the Chelsea Hotel, and all of those that came here with nothing but a dream and turned it into a wonderful tale of will?”

His response: “I could care less about the history -this city is nothing special.”

This was the end of our time together. Unfortunately, I have read many similar sentiments over the past weeks regarding NYC and why would anyone want to live here – mainly because housing is so expensive. My own family questions why I gave up a comfortable lifestyle in the mid-west to work in New York and do not understand that this city is a symphonic masterpiece for me.

In the tradition of an apprentice craving information, I devour books and periodicals resounding the history of the buildings and people that surround the green of Central Park all the way south to Wall Street. I embrace every opportunity that is offered here involving the arts, lectures on the economy, and individuals that spark my mind.

Manhattan for me is a Mecca of chaotic energy, a celebration of diversity with history and hosts exquisite architecture that fuels my obsession to be better: professionally, intellectually and spiritually.

So, there you have it. I have finally found true love in the form of an island and continue to romance it as if each day was my swan song…

 

 

.

Manhattan 4QFY08 Sales

*To view reports: Move mouse over brokerage name. Each “Report” will open in new window.

 

 

 

 

Yesterday, as I worked from my office I had CNBC on the television. The segment of interest dealt with the “Luxury Market”* in Manhattan.  Dolly Lenz (PDE) and Pam Lieberman (CORCORAN) really did not have anything that was “new” to say. However, Dolly did admit to having 5-6 deals that basically fell apart after contracts were signed and her high end clients walked from their significant deposits. 

Looking at the three reports from the BIG 3 in town the summaries are similar but the numbers are not…

As I have mentioned before: I wish the Department of Finance would restructure their process and methodology here in Manhattan. There should not be a discrepancy…

Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel*

The Numbers:

Average apartment sales price: $1,485,102

Median sales price: $900,000

Average sales price per square foot: $1,183

 

Summary

 Report author Jonathan Miller, president of CEO of Miller Samuel:

 

“There was a decline in price levels and the number of sales of re-sale apartments. Due to a surge in new-development closing activity in the current quarter and a lull in activity in the prior year quarter, the number of new-development closings and price levels rose over the period; however, these sales reflect the market 12 to 18 months ago.

In contrast to the more modest trends of closed sales, contract activity in the current quarter was marked by a sharp decline in sales activity and price levels. A periodic sampling of sales contracts showed a decline of 35% to 75% compared to the same period last year. Current contract price levels show an average decline of 20% from August 2008.”

 

The Corcoran Group and PropertyShark*

The Numbers:

Average sales price for existing apartments: $1,275,000

Median sales price for existing apartments: $759,000

Average price per square foot for existing apartments: $1,073

Summary

Corcoran CEO Pam Liebman in the report’s intro:

 

“The Fourth Quarter is usually not the busiest one for property closings, since its resale contracts are signed in the always-slow Third Quarter (when people are off for summer vacation or starting the new school year they don’t think much about moving house). But with so few transactions in the pipeline, downward pressure on prices will continue until a sense of urgency is restored for buyers.

For this reason, it is important to consider new developments in the proper context, because most of their contracts were signed in 2006 and 2007 before the current economic slowdown was upon the market in such force. Prices of new development properties were strongly higher as several significant buildings – such as 995 Fifth Avenue and 170 East End Avenue – reached the finish line this quarter after several years of work.”

 

 

 

Brown Harris Stevens and Halstead Property*

The Numbers:

Average co-op sales price: $1,103,952

Average condo sales price: $1,713,124

Average sales price per square foot for townhouses: $1,550

Summary

Report author Gregory Heym, chief economist for Terra Holdings, the brokerages’ parent company, in the report’s intro:

 

“Closing prices for Manhattan apartments averaged $1,449,621 during the fourth quarter, up slightly from a year ago but down 2% from the third quarter. While closings at 15 Central Park West and The Plaza had inflated prices over the past few quarters, this was not the case during the fourth quarter. Removing these two buildings brings the average price down just $24,230 to $1,425,391, which would be up 2% from the comparable third quarter figure and the second highest figure on record. …

New developments continued to account for a higher percentage of closings during the fourth quarter. Comprising 42% of all sales, and 72% of condominium sales, they sold for an average price of $1,717,115, 3% higher than the prior quarter. As we have pointed out in previous reports, these deals are typically negotiated far in advance of when they close. On average, new developments that closed during the fourth quarter had their contract signed on Nov. 16, 2007.”