“What is Your Personal Stimulus Plan?”

This late afternoon I took acute notice to a proposed question:

“What is your personal Stimulus Plan*?”.

I smiled as a response.

For the simple reason, that I have always believed that I am the mastermind behind all of my success and malfunctions on this journey called, life. I did not have to wait for a recession to re-evaluate my circumstances; I do not cast blame on others or even desire the government to offer Kensyian-like means to bail me out.

I indeed have a personal Stimulus Plan: written in the form of goals with deadlines. I simply call it, my Life Plan. It is by no means a masterful entrepreneurial manual wrapped with the fiscal prophecy of quick success; but one swathed with small goals quilted with even larger goals that will take many, many years to achieve. With the thread being all of my personal values.

Peculiar it is to me that individuals wait for others to determine their fate. Currently, I am surrounded by a chorus of citizens singing the parts of real estate buyers that are waiting for the market to fall further. I must say, it is time for this Requiem to fade…it is time to step up to the stage and be a soloist.

Housing prices will fall further; but, at the bottom there will be a new found fear…panic to buy. Once the economists with the media announce the “bottom is here” or even the real estate market is picking up the beat: all of self professed “bottom feeders” are going to rise to the surface and the bidding wars will begin (again). Many of the choristers will miss the opportunity of that “great deal”. The time to find that deal is now; in the art form of diva-like negotiation; but, with reasoning– by that soloist buyer. That buyer that knows the real fiscal return in the purchase arrives at their doorstep in many years.

One of my goals in my Life Plan: I will have a MIT and Harvard education saved for each of my children by the time I am 44 (the age they will be in college). Many of my friends ask, “How are you going to accomplish this as a single mother in less than a decade and as a broker??!”.

I always answer: “I am buying a studio apartment in Manhattan in 2009; two in 2010; etc. Then I will sell the first after owning 8 years (and so on), pay for their education (in full) and finally, buy my own personal residence that also will be large enough to fill all of my cherished books!”

As a first generation American (maternal side), I am a witness that owning real estate builds wealth. My grandparents’ case: owning 38 pieces of real estate…slowly, as if sewing a beautiful quilt full of will and prosperity..

Maybe, it is one reason I am drawn to downtown Manhattan…the view of Ellis Island is a remembrance of the near penniless arrival of my grandmother holding my mother as they entered America…

I am not writing this night as a helpless artist painting with words; but, as a real estate advisor with a conviction that this time of fear shall pass, bringing a resurrection of affluence to those that choose to act now. 

 

 

 

 

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity. An optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” - Winston Churchill 

*Question from Wells Fargo’s Seminar: Meeting The Market Challenge in 2009

A Contemplation of a Serious Matter

To further understand the Wagnerian complexities encircling the economy which currently augments the score of real estate here in Manhattan; I attended a few “round-table” discussions performed by the executive leadership team of Halstead at REBNY.

 

The archives of data shared with the most experienced vocal insight of leaders within the industry were heartening for me; but, also brought a dissonance: For nearly a week, I have been trying to find some sort of counterpoint with real estate trades over the last years combined with this new century.

 

So, I decided to compose the data in a form that I could actually understand this NYC Ring Cycle:

 

	STUDIO	1BDRM	2BDRM	3BDRM
2007	$379,182.00	$631,648.00	$1,411,088.00	$3,482,993.00
2006	$389,430.00	$614,770.00	$1,325,048.00	$3,230,631.00
2005	$346,231.00	$570,974.00	$1,228,087.00	$3,091,631.00
2004	$275,791.00	$451,716.00	$1,015,680.00	$2,491,606.00
2003	$243,252.00	$412,181.00	$869,522.00	$2,262,754.00
2002	$248,305.00	$342,451.00	$768,653.00	$2,447,632.00
2001	$226,283.00	$344,250.00	$760,030.00	$2,285,924.00
2000	$152,971.00	$297,696.00	$767,508.00	$1,972,794.00
1999	$103,600.00	$218,061.00	$555,907.00	$1,510,412.00
1998	$123,070.00	$248,632.00	$504,317.00	$1,197,376.00
1997	$91,744.00	$171,731.00	$428,505.00	$1,205,836.00
1996	$79,130.00	$152,380.00	$383,234.00	$998,797.00
1995	$72,176.00	$142,685.00	$355,278.00	$1,000,486.00
1994	$70,985.00	$142,739.00	$369,060.00	$974,718.00
1993	$71,238.00	$136,471.00	$349,552.00	$921,855.00
1992	$83,131.00	$149,677.00	$368,031.00	$930,805.00
1991	$91,698.00	$162,423.00	$371,580.00	$871,036.00
1990	$116,523.00	$174,128.00	$438,077.00	$1,085,296.00
1989	$121,863.00	$184,042.00	$464,629.00	$1,171,664.00

 

Post analyzing the above composition (focusing on the 1990s), I have been haunted by an Unanswered Question:

 

Are we in for another dark dive that lasted nearly a decade?

 

As if I was forced to only see Central Park in the Dark while listening to the music of Charles Ives, I desperately needed to find a dissimilarity within this cycle…this simply cannot be the destiny of our Manhattan market!

 

What is the key difference between the 1990s and this second day of March within the year of 2009: population!

 

According to the Department of City Planning, the population of NYC in the 1990s was 7,322,564…this day it is over 8,310,212.

 

It is for such growth in our city’s population that I do not foresee such a “dark decade” in our future…Simply, we have a NEED to house the growing population in NYC…

 

For the record: I am a REALIST that processes information like an appraiser; communicates as a broker that is a BELIEVER that all things can change for the betterment with thought, knowledge and perseverance…a counterpoint in real estate? Maybe…

 

  

Printable version of the above data

*In music, counterpoint is the relationship between two or more voices that are independent in contour and rhythm, and interdependent in harmony. It has been most commonly identified in Western music, developing strongly in the Renaissance, and also dominant in much of the common practice period, especially in Baroque music. The term comes from the Latin punctus contra punctum (“point against point”).