Recently, I was debating with a friend, whom is a real estate agent with the largest real estate firm in Manhattan about the national market and how it affects NYC. I met him when I was at that firm as the Broker Referral Manager. For years I have heard brokers and their sales associates say: “This is New York, it does not apply to us”. Well, I disagree and it does affect NY.
Yes, Manhattan has seen a great deal of appreciation. However, many agents do not realize why or take the time to understand their statement “This is New York, it does not apply to us”.
Part of the upward growth in NYC is foreign investors, lack of land to expand (unlike Dallas), and corporate relocation.
I would like to expand on the relocation point of view:
In terms of appreciation:
The average term of a transferee’s relocation assignment is two years. Currently, I have eight clients that have been told by their companies that they will be in NYC for 18-24 months.
Prior to moving to New York, I handled the relocation for an investment bank in Manhattan. In addition to this client, I (and a team) managed fifteen other corporate clients throughout the US and Puerto Rico. This experience allowed me to really take note of how relocation affects the market. During my tenure (3 yrs), I relocated 40% of my transferees twice.
One transferee always sticks in my mind: a PMD for the investment bank I relocated from NY to Houston; from Houston to San Francisco; from San Francisco to New York. I was involved with six real estate transactions for this transferee within three years. Houston at the time was a really tough market. I actually, sold and closed the San Francisco property before the Houston property…
Yes, this example is a little extreme, but hopefully, you will understand the impact of corporations moving their employees in and out of a city that builds “up” and not “out”. Of course we are going to have appreciation if you are turning the same apartment -let us say, every two years…
In terms of “The Bubble”:
I do feel that the National Market does influence Manhattan real estate. Albeit, not severely…
One example: a homeowner in Detroit that is being relocated to Manhattan may not be able to purchase in New York and may have to rent in lieu of buying. I have heard many sales/rental agents ask and complain,
“My client makes $300,000.00 a year and only wants to spend $5,000.00 a month for a two bedroom rental. How am I supposed to do that and why does he not just purchase?”
My response, is always a question, “Where is he relocating from?”
Then, my response (depending on the city):
1. He may not be able to sell the home in Detroit for a year because the over abundance of homes on the market.
2. His company may not be offering him a Guaranteed Purchase Offer.
3. He may not qualify for a mortgage in NYC because of his home in Detroit
4. His company may not be offering duplicate housing because he is not purchasing in the new location.
So yes, the National Market does affect NYC real estate…
Another thing to think about:
Companies are cutting back on their relocation policies because of the Market Conditions in the rest of the country…this too affects NYC real estate.