A Contemplation of a Serious Matter

To further understand the Wagnerian complexities encircling the economy, which currently augments the score of real estate here in Manhattan; I attended a few “round-table” discussions performed by the executive leadership team of Halstead at REBNY.

 

The archives of data shared with the most experienced vocal insight of leaders within the industry were heartening for me; but, also brought a dissonance: For nearly a week, I have been trying to find some sort of counterpoint with real estate trades over the last years–combined with this new century.

 

So, I decided to compose the data in a form that I could actually understand this NYC Ring Cycle:

 

co-op-cycle-chart

 

STUDIO

1BDRM

2BDRM

3BDRM

2007

$379,182.00

$631,648.00

$1,411,088.00

$3,482,993.00

2006

$389,430.00

$614,770.00

$1,325,048.00

$3,230,631.00

2005

$346,231.00

$570,974.00

$1,228,087.00

$3,091,631.00

2004

$275,791.00

$451,716.00

$1,015,680.00

$2,491,606.00

2003

$243,252.00

$412,181.00

$869,522.00

$2,262,754.00

2002

$248,305.00

$342,451.00

$768,653.00

$2,447,632.00

2001

$226,283.00

$344,250.00

$760,030.00

$2,285,924.00

2000

$152,971.00

$297,696.00

$767,508.00

$1,972,794.00

1999

$103,600.00

$218,061.00

$555,907.00

$1,510,412.00

1998

$123,070.00

$248,632.00

$504,317.00

$1,197,376.00

1997

$91,744.00

$171,731.00

$428,505.00

$1,205,836.00

1996

$79,130.00

$152,380.00

$383,234.00

$998,797.00

1995

$72,176.00

$142,685.00

$355,278.00

$1,000,486.00

1994

$70,985.00

$142,739.00

$369,060.00

$974,718.00

1993

$71,238.00

$136,471.00

$349,552.00

$921,855.00

1992

$83,131.00

$149,677.00

$368,031.00

$930,805.00

1991

$91,698.00

$162,423.00

$371,580.00

$871,036.00

1990

$116,523.00

$174,128.00

$438,077.00

$1,085,296.00

1989

$121,863.00

$184,042.00

$464,629.00

$1,171,664.00

 

Post analyzing the above composition (focusing on the 1990s), I have been haunted by an Unanswered Question:

 

Are we in for another dark dive that lasted nearly a decade?

 

As if I was forced to only see Central Park in the Dark while listening to the music of Charles Ives, I desperately needed to find a dissimilarity within this cycle…this simply cannot be the destiny of our Manhattan market!

 

What is the key difference between the 1990s and this second day of March within the year of 2009: population!

 

According to the Department of City Planning, the population of NYC in the 1990s was 7,322,564…this day it is over 8,310,212.

 

It is for such growth in our city’s population that I do not foresee such a “dark decade” in our future…Simply, we have a NEED to house the growing population in NYC…

 

For the record: I am a REALIST who processes information like an appraiser; communicates as a broker, who is a BELIEVER that all things can change for the betterment with thought, knowledge and perseverance…a counterpoint in real estate? Maybe…

 

  

Printable version of the above data

*In music, counterpoint is the relationship between two or more voices that are independent in contour and rhythm, and interdependent in harmony. It has been most commonly identified in Western music, developing strongly in the Renaissance, and also dominant in much of the common practice period, especially in Baroque music. The term comes from the Latin punctus contra punctum (“point against point”).

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